Detoxification of the World Economy – All countries are still struggling with the 2019 Coronavirus Disease pandemic (Covid-19). Based on the chart provided by Johns Hopkins University & Medicine, it is seen that countries that were first exposed to the plague, such as China and South Korea, were able to hold the rate of increasing the number of patients in about a quarter. This hope can exist with two models namely, implementing lockdown or closing schools and working from home equipped with three “spells”: track, test, and care.
Like South Korea, Indonesia chose a second model that was complemented by large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) interventions. The regional head, after the area meets the criteria, can submit a PSBB application to the health minister. Considering that Indonesia is a large archipelagic country, the conditions of each region will be different, so that the determination of the PSBB depends on the conditions of each region.
Detoxification of the World Economy
After the Spanish flu pandemic (1918-1920), the world experienced five virus attacks, although not all were pandemic. The five are Asian flu (1957-1958), Hong Kong flu (1968-1969), acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002-2003, Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome (MERS) in 2012, and ebola (2014-2016). As with previous outbreaks, the world hopes the Covid-19 outbreak can be overcome within the same time frame. To contain the spread of the virus, each country shifts its economic focus from the demand side to the supply side core, which is saving people. When the spread of the virus can be overcome, the economy will start moving, as seen in China and South Korea. Indonesia took a similar step with a short-term focus on managing the pandemic, which was supported by the provision of social safety nets and the rescue of micro, small and medium enterprises.
World economic growth is expected to reach its lowest point in the April-June period. If every country is able to overcome Covid-19 in the second quarter, the world economy will slowly rise in the end of 2020 until the first quarter of 2021 (Hausmann, Baldwin and Mauro, 2020). This pandemic made the world production network stop but not totally because the spread did not occur together. For example, in Asia, when outbreaks broke out in China and South Korea in the first quarter, the Southeast Asian production network was still running. At that time, many people thought that Southeast Asia would receive an abundance of investment from China because the industry there was closing down.
The situation changed completely in the second quarter when Southeast Asian production networks, such as Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines, fell, while Chinese and South Korean manufacturing machines began to move. If the Southeast Asian production network starts to move, the meeting point of the Asian and Southeast Asian production network is expected to begin to unite in the end of 2020. Growth in the world economy, including Asia and Southeast Asia, will be lower this year than last year. Poker Online Manado
If public health policies in each country in Southeast Asia are effective, as seen in China and South Korea, within three months of the outbreak, an increase in the number of patients will be retained. When the addition of new patients is near zero, the availability of medical equipment and services will be adequate by itself. This condition will increase the probability of the number of patients recovering and reduce the number of patients dying. Public health policies in Singapore and Thailand appear to be effective in holding death ratios at low levels, namely 0.3 and 1.3 percent. Indonesia with the PSBB policy is expected to reduce the mobility of people so that the addition of new patients can also be detained.
A recent study published in the leading journal, The Lancet, shows restrictions on human movement can reduce the number of new patients by 90 percent because Covid-19 cannot last long without healthy human cells (Remuzzi & Remuzzi, 2020). Anzai et al (2020) study in the Journal of Clinical Medicine shows a decrease in the movement of people has an impact on a linear decrease in pandemic around 7 percent in two days, depending on the effectiveness of the scenario of limiting movement of people. When PSBB is effective because all elements are consistent, increasing the number of new patients can be kept until it goes down. Detoxification of the World Economy
The world is indeed undergoing detoxification. The Covid-19 outbreak had an impact on the environment because the world production network took turns resting until the sky and sea appeared bluer. Humans are forced to “reflect” on their lives from home. When all countries are able to survive, the world will be reborn with the hope that humans will become stronger and friendly to nature. To borrow Professor Sadli’s statement, “The difficult conditions are actually an opportunity to bring forth the best policies, including in the economy and development.”